The general elections are fast approaching, and the big question on everybody’s minds is, “Will the Republicans lose control of Congress?” To answer that question, I like to turn to the financial markets.

The Dow has been hitting record highs lately, and oil has backed off significantly from its summer peak. Both of these metrics have a profound psychological impact on the populace, but their connection to the election is capricious at best. I prefer to look towards an exotic futures market for my political insight.

As I’ve mentioned in the past, the University of Iowa runs a futures market for the outcome of major US elections. A really simple, hand-wavy explanation is that the market allows investors to put their money where their mouth is; this is a real market where people win and lose real money. Contracts are available for control of the Senate, control of the House, and overall status of the Congress.

This sort of market tends to be good at predicting the future because its participants tend to make transactions that they think will be most profitable regardless of their heart-felt biases. To wit: if a Democrat really wanted to see the Dems win the House but saw all signs as pointing towards continued Republican control, he would buy a contract that would make him a profit if the Republicans kept power.

What are the markets currently predicting? It depends on which market is being evaluated, but in general, the consensus is that the Republicans will lose the House. The Senate race is less clear, but at the moment, the signs suggest that the Democrats will not control the Senate. It will be interesting to see how accurate the markets are. Historically, they’ve been pretty good at a few weeks out, but the markets incorrectly called the Senate outcome for the last mid-term election.

Speaking of futures markets, check out the new housing futures. That market is currently predicting a 7% drop in home values nation-wide by August 2007. Might want to hold off on that home purchase just a bit longer…

For those of you who are preparing to take the GRE for grad school or masochism, I give you a word to study: raconteur.

I first heard the word three days ago; since then, I have seen it thrice. Once on Wikipedia, once on the aforementioned “Bullshit!”, and once in the Wall Street Journal print edition.

Be not feckless when learning.

I have found a new favorite TV show: Penn and Teller’s Bullshit!

It’s irreverent, libretarian, and dreadfully entertaining.

Maybe it’s just me, but I find this phrase a wee bit disturbing: “They estimate the possibility of accidentally destroying the planet as extremely low.” That might not be so bad, but just a few sentences earlier appears the text: “For the first time in many decades we have built a machine that exceeds our powers of prediction.”

Hmmm…

(source)

We remember tragedy so that we can heal.

Five years ago today, I woke to a beautiful, crisp morning. I went to my first period class, which I recall was rather boring. When I got out of class at 8:50 a.m. CDT, I went to the commons, like always, to hang out with my Brothers until my next class. When I arrived there, the sight was unbelievable.

Above the couches, two TVs were on, tuned to CNN. They showed a live shot of the New York skyline with the twin towers billowing smoke. Everybody watched with rapt attention.

A few minutes later, the live feed showed the south tower collapse. A half hour after that, the other tower fell. Around that time, CNN showed footage of explosions in Kabul, Afghanistan. One of the ROTC cadets near me said, “We’re going to war, boys.”

I remember going to another class, but I remember only that nobody could concentrate.

I remember looking into the bright blue sky and seeing no jet contrails.

I remember going to the cafeteria. In the Kahn room, somebody had set up a projector showing a cable news feed on a giant screen. Students ate their lunches in complete silence while watching the news.

I remember trying to get news from the web and finding most major news sites completely unresponsive.

I remember a mad rush to fill up with gas at the Bigfoot gas station next to campus. Word went out that other stations had jacked up prices to obscene levels, but the Bigfoot still sold regular unleaded for $1.40/gallon. Dave Atkinson took a photo of the hiked prices at a different station. Before long, lines stretched for a block away from the Bigfoot. The state police were soon summoned to calm heated tempers. The gas rush epitomized the fear of what had become of the world.

This morning, CNN streamed their complete coverage from September 11, 2001, starting at 7:30 a.m. CDT, in real time. The transition from fluffy morning news to shock and confusion was surreal. When I saw the towers collapse again, the exact same images I saw five years prior, I couldn’t stop a tear from welling in my eye.